Osama Chats Up America

N.B. This post has been updated below. (If you're on the main page, please click "Continue reading..." and then scroll).

Belmont Club suggests that a weary Osama is looking for a time out. We respectfully, but emphatically disagree, unless by time out, one means U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. If memory serves, bin Laden has always been surprisingly soft-spoken in contrast to more familiar sermonizing, western-style charismatics. While Assam threatens and Zarqawi makes good on streets of blood, Osama is the very picture of a reasonable man, a calm paterfamilias, -- lulling the giant back to sleep: We do not hate freedom. We are just like you. We love our freedom, and when we are attacked, like you, we respond. We want security, as you do, you just need to realize that security is within your grasp.

What we now realize here at Quasiblog, is why there have been no pre-election attacks. It must be obvious, even to Osama, that what worked in Madrid won't work in the States. Indeed, why risk it when there's a very good chance that the U.S. will change leadership on its own? Osama offers himself up to prove the Kerry pudding of Bush failures: I'm alive and doing quite well, thank you very much. Look, Ma: no cave, no plastic surgery, not so much as a shave.

Osama has seen the movie, heard our over-heated rhetoric in the press and thinks he's read the American pulse: Yes, you've been misled, as we have, by greedy, heartless, oligarchs passing power from father to son. You can see it, if you'll only look. He has a point, of course. Oil based western policy has long sustained a cruel, oppressive status quo in the middle east. That's why establishing a new, working, paradigm in Iraq is so critically important. Osama speaks to America in terms that would not only sound downright temperate to the middle eastern mainstream, but that already have specific currency here at home. He's walked straight out of Fahrenheit 911 into our living rooms.

Unlike Osama, however, the sane majority in America will never fundamentally confuse the Bushes with their royal Saudi counterparts. Bush pere et fils, whose politics are worlds apart, resemble a dynasty in name only. Americans have far more invested in our leadership than Osama (or even most of Europe for that matter) can adequately imagine. If our elections are nasty and hard fought, it is because, despite the perennially disaffected of one sort or another, we feel personally responsible for the leadership we choose, and for the policies our leadership pursues. Presidents and Prime Ministers in France, for example, emerge primarily from a bureaucratic leadership class. Who but Americans would apply the can-I-imagine-having-a-beer-with-this-guy test to determine the suitability of a candidate for most powerful man on earth? Lincoln wasn't kidding when he talked about government of, for and by.

What Osama does understand, however, is that there is a large contingent of Americans who think we've been recklessly and needlessly upsetting global apple carts. The rhetoric of Andalusia is missing, as the Belmont Club observes, because it's designed for internal consumption. The October Osama is a dignified, self-styled head of state whose territory has been invaded by misguided oligarchs from the west. That is, in probable fact, how he envisions himself, and the only thing standing in the way of making that dream a reality is a U.S. presence in the middle east.

Quasiblog wonders if 9/11 wasn't really designed for internal consumption as well. We suspect that if the invasion of Afghanistan came as something of a surprise, the invasion of Iraq was a revelation. Over the last few years, save for the occasional sound bite, Osama has kept a certain careful distance from that battle and, rather studiously we believe, avoided direct major violence against Americans. Even in Iraq, attacks have been aimed as much at discouraging our allies and the Iraqis themselves as at defeating our troops; Osama has been busy elsewhere as even a cursory glance at global terror stats makes clear.

Bin Laden cannot mount a serious challenge to western power without an empire of his own. He cannot build one unless the U.S. returns to the pre-9/11 universe of sovereign nation states who do not meddle in each other's affairs. More than anything else, Osama wants the U.S. out of the Middle East so that the acquisition or control of actual territory can begin. He'll fight on, regardless, of course, but right now, he is offering everyone who thinks Iraq is an unmitigated disaster an easily negotiated withdrawal. Elect John Kerry. Whether or not one agrees with this assessment, or points to demurrers, the intention seems straightforward enough.

But for his basic misunderstanding of the American electorate, such an appeal makes sense. As it is, however, even those who earnestly desire a return to the international fold will be consulting their own consciences, not Bin Laden or the Guardian or, in all likelihood, their neighbors either. The vaunted terrorist would be disconcerted by the impact of his dramatic reappearance which, if it has served any purpose at all, has simply managed to change the subject in these last few campaign days -- pre-empting the October surprises which were, till now, serving John Kerry better than George Bush. On the other hand, knowing that Osama has made no attempt to disguise himself, among other gleanings, may eventually prove to be of more practical benefit to us than to Al Qaeda.

See Don't Be Fooled By His Measured Tone where the Captain's Quarters ship is listing our direction.
See also Powerline

UPDATE:
Additional information via MIchael Totten posting on Instapundit suggests that perhaps Belmont Club may be more right than wrong. The positioning observed above could conceivably be more properly attributed to purposeful editing at Al Jazeera than to method on the part of bin Laden himself. Mr. Totten quotes from a New York Post article:

Officials said that in the 18-minute long tape — of which only six minutes were aired on the al-Jazeera Arab television network in the Middle East on Friday — bin Laden bemoans the recent democratic elections in Afghanistan and the lack of violence involved with it.

On the tape, bin Laden also says his terror organization has been hurt by the U.S. military's unrelenting manhunt for him and his cohorts on the Afghan-Pakistani border.

A portion of the left-out footage includes a tirade aimed at President Bush and his father, former President George H.W. Bush, claiming the war in Iraq is purely over oil.

The tape also sparked some concern that an attack aimed at disrupting Tuesday's election may be planned.

Curiouser and curiouser.

Comments

[Buddy Larsen]

Good stuff, Quasiblog. Many facets to the jewel, and yours shines brightly.

[Gordon DeSpain]

Good, logical extrapolations, consistent with UBL's links to Saudi Royalty. Much the same as John Kerry's links to European Royalty, they expect power, praise and affirmation as a right of birth, and, will attempt to sway all around them with "Words of Power."

[Gordon DeSpain]

Here's a copy of a Post I wrote to Tim Blairs "Spleenville" Aussie Blog, concerning Mr. Howards victory in the Australian Election.
________________________________________________

Our gravest Thanks to the Ozzy People for choosing to stand with America when so many here would fight to have you run...but, all things have caveats.

I've been involved in Constitutional issues for most of my life, and, it has not escaped me that the People of Australia have been under assault from all sides, since Port Arthur. Quite often, Mr. Howard was leading the charge.

Stand we now, on the Beach of another Gallipoli, Bayonets fixed, Magazines empty, nothing up the Spout. To our left stands a tall, slender, dour-faced figure, thoughtfully stroking th' Bugle in hand, ignoring his past, pondering his future, and, planning victory speeches.

War is Hell, but, enemies within are often more dangerous than Turks on th' Hill. We thank Mr. Howard from the bottom of our hearts for standing with us, but, like Mr. Kerry, he has a past...of standing with the UN to the detriment of "The People."

A Bayonet is little comfort when the Magazine is empty and there's nothing up the Spout...especially when the dour-faced figure has been heard questioning the need for Bayonets.

Ponder that.

(With Reservation of All Constitutional Rights)
Gordon Arthur DeSpain
Pasadena, Texas
ex-King of the Punching Bag, at Gilley's

Posted by: Warsong at October 11, 2004 at 06:12 AM

[Andrew Kohtz]

I enjoyed your comments on Osama's speech. I posted my own analysis of it on my blog, Civil Banter, that you may be interested in reading. Thanks.